Sorrento vs Casarano: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 8Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani, Potenza
The Footlab model makes Casarano the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sorrento. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sorrento vs Casarano?
Casarano starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,838 vs 1,720).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sorrento have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Casarano have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giugliano(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | AZ Picerno(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 1-4 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bari(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 20, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 0-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 13, 2026 | Renate(away) | 3-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sorrento win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Casarano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Casarano 2-0 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Sorrento 3-3 Casarano | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Sorrento 3-0 Casarano | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Casarano 1-1 Sorrento | Serie D - Girone H |
| Feb 16, 2020 | Sorrento 7-0 Casarano | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 13, 2019 | Casarano 0-0 Sorrento | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Sorrento score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Casarano score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sorrento | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Casarano | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sorrento sit 5th in Serie C - Girone C (3 points from 1 matches) and Casarano sit 19th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sorrento | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Casarano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sorrento vs Casarano?
- The Footlab model makes Casarano the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sorrento.
- Where and when is Sorrento vs Casarano played?
- Sorrento vs Casarano is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.