Salernitana vs Cavese: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Arechi, Salerno
The Footlab model makes Salernitana the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Cavese. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Salernitana vs Cavese?
Salernitana starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Salernitana have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Cavese have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sambiase(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 27, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 20, 2026 | Ravenna(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bari(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Campobasso FC(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Juve Stabia(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sarnese(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Cosenza(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Salernitana win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Cavese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Cavese 1-1 Salernitana | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Salernitana 3-2 Cavese | Serie C - Girone C |
Last archived meeting: Cavese vs Salernitana on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Salernitana score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cavese score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Cavese | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cavese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Salernitana vs Cavese?
- The Footlab model makes Salernitana the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Cavese.
- Where and when is Salernitana vs Cavese played?
- Salernitana vs Cavese is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Arechi, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.