Sámano vs Castro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Vallegon, Cantabria
The Footlab model makes Sámano the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sámano vs Castro?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Sámano (1,653) and Castro (1,702).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sámano have 1 wins, 1 draws and 13 defeats; Castro have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Bergantiños(home) | 0-5 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Numancia(home) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sarriana(away) | 0-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cartes(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sámano win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Castro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2025 | Sámano 1-0 Castro | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Castro 0-0 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Sámano 0-2 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Castro 1-0 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Sámano 0-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Sámano 2-2 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Sámano score 0.6 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 15; Castro score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sámano | 0.6 | 3.3 | 0 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
| Castro | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Castro | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 44 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sámano vs Castro?
- The Footlab model makes Sámano the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Castro.
- Where and when is Sámano vs Castro played?
- Sámano vs Castro is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Vallegon, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.