Sámano vs Castro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Vallegon, Cantabria
The Footlab AI model makes Sámano the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sámano wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sámano vs Castro?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Sámano (1,682) and Castro (1,651).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sámano vs Castro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sámano
4-3-3- 9A. Castillo Marcilla
- 11A. Berzosa
- 23J. Ibanez
- 6D. Aguirre
- 10A. Lambea
- 14M. Gilete
- 2A. Abad
- 22L. Gomez
- 4J. Lopez
- LLuis Gómez
- 1G. Masach
Castro
Not enough data to predict the Castro lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sámano have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Castro have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Velarde(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cayón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vimenor(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sámano win, 2 draws, 3 Castro wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2025 | Sámano 1-0 Castro | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Castro 0-0 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Sámano 0-2 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Castro 1-0 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Sámano 0-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Sámano 2-2 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Sámano score 1.3 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Castro score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sámano | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
| Castro | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sámano sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (11 points from 6 matches) and Castro sit 13th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sámano | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 11 |
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Sámano vs Castro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sámano vs Castro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sámano the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Castro.
- Where and when is Sámano vs Castro played?
- Sámano vs Castro is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Vallegon, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.