Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 21Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun
The Footlab model makes Samsunspor the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Kocaelispor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor?
Samsunspor starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,874).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samsunspor have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Kocaelispor have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 3-3 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Amed(home) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Başakşehir(away) | 0-2 | Süper Lig |
| May 17, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(home) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 3, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Samsunspor win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Kocaelispor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Samsunspor 0-0 Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Kocaelispor 0-1 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Samsunspor 3-0 Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
| Aug 28, 2021 | Kocaelispor 1-0 Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samsunspor score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kocaelispor score 0.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Kocaelispor | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samsunspor sit 3rd in Süper Lig (4 points from 2 matches) and Kocaelispor sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Samsunspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Kocaelispor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor?
- The Footlab model makes Samsunspor the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Kocaelispor.
- Where and when is Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor played?
- Samsunspor vs Kocaelispor is played on February 14, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.