Santa Amalia vs Castuera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia, Santa Amalia
The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Santa Amalia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castuera wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,854 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Amalia vs Castuera?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Santa Amalia (1,672) and Castuera (1,722).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Santa Amalia vs Castuera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Santa Amalia
Not enough data to predict the Santa Amalia lineup.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 02:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Amalia have 1 win, 8 draws and 6 defeats; Castuera have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Llerenense(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Villafranca(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Villafranca(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Llerenense(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Quintana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Moralo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Santa Amalia win, 0 draws, 1 Castuera win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Santa Amalia 4-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Castuera 1-0 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Amalia vs Castuera on Mar 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Amalia score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Castuera score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Amalia | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Castuera | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Amalia sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (9 points from 9 matches) and Castuera sit 4th (17 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Castuera | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 17 |
| 14 | Santa Amalia | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
A question about Santa Amalia vs Castuera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Amalia vs Castuera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Santa Amalia.
- Where and when is Santa Amalia vs Castuera played?
- Santa Amalia vs Castuera is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.