Gévora vs Castuera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo De Fútbol Gévora, Gévora
The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Gévora. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castuera wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gévora vs Castuera?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Gévora (1,695) and Castuera (1,720).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gévora vs Castuera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gévora
Not enough data to predict the Gévora lineup.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gévora have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Castuera have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Llerenense(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Moralo(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Quintana(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Plasencia(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Plasencia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Jerez(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Gévora wins, 0 draws, 1 Castuera win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Castuera 5-0 Gévora | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gévora score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Castuera score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gévora | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Castuera | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gévora sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (8 points from 6 matches) and Castuera sit 4th (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Gévora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Gévora vs Castuera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gévora vs Castuera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Gévora.
- Where and when is Gévora vs Castuera played?
- Gévora vs Castuera is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo De Fútbol Gévora, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.