Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita: prediction and stats
Liga de AscensoRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Piedades, Santa Ana
The Footlab model makes Santa Ana the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for AD Carmelita. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Santa Ana (1,537) and AD Carmelita (1,499).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Ana have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; AD Carmelita have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CS Uruguay(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Carmelita(away) | 3-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aserri FC(home) | 1-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Aserri FC(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(away) | 1-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Guadalupe FC(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santa Ana(home) | 2-3 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CS Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Aserri FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santa Ana win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 AD Carmelita win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Carmelita 2-3 Santa Ana | Liga de Ascenso |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AD Carmelita 1-2 Santa Ana | Liga de Ascenso |
| Nov 16, 2025 | AD Carmelita 2-0 Santa Ana | Liga de Ascenso |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Santa Ana 1-1 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 20, 2021 | Santa Ana 1-0 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
| Feb 5, 2021 | AD Carmelita 3-2 Santa Ana | Liga de Ascenso |
Last archived meeting: AD Carmelita vs Santa Ana on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Ana score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; AD Carmelita score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Ana | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
| AD Carmelita | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Ana sit 2nd in Liga de Ascenso (9 points from 3 matches) and AD Carmelita sit 9th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Santa Ana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | AD Carmelita | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Ana the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for AD Carmelita.
- Where and when is Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita played?
- Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita is played on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Piedades, in the Liga de Ascenso.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.