Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC: prediction and stats
Liga de AscensoRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz FC the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Aserri FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Santa Cruz FC (1,527) and Aserri FC (1,465).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Cruz FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Aserri FC have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ADR Jicaral(away) | 1-4 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Municipal Grecia(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Cofutpa(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Quepos Cambute(away) | 0-4 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Escorpiones Belén(away) | 1-4 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Municipal Grecia(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Quepos Cambute(away) | 1-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guadalupe FC(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Santa Ana(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Cruz FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aserri FC score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz FC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Aserri FC | 1.1 | 2.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Cruz FC sit 11th in Liga de Ascenso (3 points from 4 matches) and Aserri FC sit 4th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aserri FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 11 | Santa Cruz FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz FC the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Aserri FC.
- Where and when is Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC played?
- Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC is played on August 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga de Ascenso.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.