Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Sevilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 208-point Elo edge (2,247 vs 2,039).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sevilla have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sevilla win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 3-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 4-3 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Sevilla 1-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Sevilla | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sevilla score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sevilla sit 4th in La Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Sevilla.
- Where and when is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid is played on August 29, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.