Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gyumri City Stadium, Gyumri
The Footlab model makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Shirak. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia?
Ararat-Armenia is a heavy favourite: 1,868 Elo points against 1,452 — a 416-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shirak have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Ararat-Armenia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Urartu(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Gandzasar(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Noah(home) | 3-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 26, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Universitatea Craiova(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Van(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Celje(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC Urartu(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Shirak win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Ararat-Armenia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Shirak 0-4 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Shirak 0-2 Ararat-Armenia | Cup |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Shirak | Cup |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 4-1 Shirak | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Shirak 0-1 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| May 3, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 5-1 Shirak | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia on Apr 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shirak score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ararat-Armenia score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shirak | 0.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shirak sit 7th in Premier League (4 points from 4 matches) and Ararat-Armenia sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Shirak | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia?
- The Footlab model makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Shirak.
- Where and when is Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia played?
- Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia is played on September 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gyumri City Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.