Šmartno vs Zavrč: prediction and stats
3. SNL - EastEast - 8Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Štadion Šmartno ob Paki, Šmartno ob Paki
The Footlab model makes Šmartno the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Zavrč. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Šmartno vs Zavrč?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Šmartno (1,399) and Zavrč (1,456).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Šmartno have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Zavrč have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Korotan Prevalje(away) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - East |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Ormoz(home) | 2-4 | 3. SNL - East |
| May 23, 2026 | Rače(home) | 0-1 | 3. SNL - East |
| May 16, 2026 | Podvinci(away) | 2-0 | 3. SNL - East |
| May 10, 2026 | Fužinar(home) | 5-0 | 3. SNL - East |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Brežice(away) | 0-6 | 3. SNL - East |
| May 16, 2026 | Čarda Martjanci(away) | 1-2 | 3. SNL - East |
| May 9, 2026 | Rače(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - East |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Podvinci(away) | 3-2 | 3. SNL - East |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Fužinar(home) | 1-4 | 3. SNL - East |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Šmartno win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Zavrč win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | Zavrč 2-0 Šmartno | 3. SNL - East |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Šmartno 3-2 Zavrč | 3. SNL - East |
How many goals should we expect?
Šmartno score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Zavrč score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Šmartno | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Zavrč | 1.1 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Šmartno | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Šmartno vs Zavrč?
- The Footlab model makes Šmartno the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Zavrč.
- Where and when is Šmartno vs Zavrč played?
- Šmartno vs Zavrč is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Štadion Šmartno ob Paki, in the 3. SNL - East.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.