Somozas vs Celtiga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alcalde Manuel Candocia, As Somozas
The Footlab model makes Somozas the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Celtiga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Somozas vs Celtiga?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Somozas (1,774) and Celtiga (1,700).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Somozas have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Celtiga have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Boiro(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Barco(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Compostela(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Estradense(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Viveiro(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Noia(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villalbés(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Barbadás(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Somozas win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Celtiga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Somozas 1-1 Celtiga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Celtiga 5-0 Somozas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Somozas score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Celtiga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somozas | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Celtiga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Somozas sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 (51 points from 34 matches) and Celtiga sit 13th (40 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Somozas | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 37 | 32 | 51 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 48 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Somozas vs Celtiga?
- The Footlab model makes Somozas the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Celtiga.
- Where and when is Somozas vs Celtiga played?
- Somozas vs Celtiga is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alcalde Manuel Candocia, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.