Match

Sousense vs Machico: prediction and stats

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 13Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio 1º De Dezembro, Foz do Sousa

SousenseMachico

The Footlab model makes Sousense the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Machico. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sousense vs Machico?

A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Sousense (1,749) and Machico (1,803).

Sousense win38 %
Draw31 %
Machico win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Sousense have 2 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Machico have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sousense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Castro Daire(home)0-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Aug 16, 2026Cinfães(away)0-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Jul 25, 2026União Lamas(home)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 24, 2017Oleiros(away)0-3Taça de Portugal
Sep 3, 2017Paredes(home)2-0Taça de Portugal
Machico
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Beira-Mar(away)2-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Jul 25, 2026Maritimo(away)0-0Friendlies Clubs
Apr 18, 2026Ribeira Brava(home)1-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A
Apr 12, 2026Celoricense(away)0-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A
Apr 8, 2026Vilaverdense(home)1-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

How many goals should we expect?

Sousense score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 7; Machico score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sousense0.71.612/73/7
Machico1.10.7104/154/15

Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sousense sit 14th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (0 points from 2 matches) and Machico sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Machico2110204
14Sousense2002030

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sousense vs Machico?
The Footlab model makes Sousense the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Machico.
Where and when is Sousense vs Machico played?
Sousense vs Machico is played on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio 1º De Dezembro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Sousense and Machico

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