Alpendorada vs Florgrade: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 13Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, Alpendurada e Matos
The Footlab AI model makes Florgrade the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Alpendorada. The most likely score is 1-1. If Florgrade wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Florgrade?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Alpendorada (1,912) and Florgrade (1,917).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alpendorada vs Florgrade
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alpendorada
4-3-3- 11Jucélio
- 45Pauleta
- 93Nilo Souza
- 47M. Borges
- 8B. Tavares
- 10Jony
- 16Simão Melhôr
- 2H. Meireles
- 3G. Zuzarte
- 23Pepe
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Florgrade
Not enough data to predict the Florgrade lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 04:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alpendorada have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Florgrade have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mação(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Machico(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Machico(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sanjoanense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Alpendorada win, 1 draw, 0 Florgrade wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Florgrade 2-2 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Alpendorada 3-1 Florgrade | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Florgrade vs Alpendorada on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alpendorada score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Florgrade score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpendorada | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Florgrade | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alpendorada sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (3 points from 4 matches) and Florgrade sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
A question about Alpendorada vs Florgrade?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alpendorada vs Florgrade?
- The Footlab AI model makes Florgrade the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Alpendorada.
- Where and when is Alpendorada vs Florgrade played?
- Alpendorada vs Florgrade is played on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.