Sousense vs Ovarense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 16Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio 1º De Dezembro, Foz do Sousa
The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Sousense. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sousense vs Ovarense?
Ovarense starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,742).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sousense vs Ovarense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sousense
Not enough data to predict the Sousense lineup.
Ovarense
Not enough data to predict the Ovarense lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Sousense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Ovarense have 5, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Castro Daire(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Beira-Mar(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sousense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 23, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Sousense wins, 0 draws, 1 Ovarense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Ovarense 2-0 Sousense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Sousense score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 11; Ovarense score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sousense | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 4/10 | 5/10 |
| Ovarense | 2.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 5/9 | 4/9 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sousense sit 14th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (1 point from 4 matches) and Ovarense sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Sousense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
A question about Sousense vs Ovarense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sousense vs Ovarense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Sousense.
- Where and when is Sousense vs Ovarense played?
- Sousense vs Ovarense is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio 1º De Dezembro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.