Estrela vs Castro Daire: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 16Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Castro Daire. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Castro Daire?
Estrela starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,036 vs 1,825).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrela vs Castro Daire
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 21M. Scholze
- 5S. Leković
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Castro Daire
4-3-3- MMarcel
- JJoão Rianço
- PPaulo Rodrigues
- TTiago Almeida
- FFred Lopes
- DDiogo
- FFilipe Soares
- PPica
- TTomás César
- RRui Pinto
- TTomás Correia
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Castro Daire have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Salgueiros(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ovarense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Castro Daire score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Castro Daire | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castro Daire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
A question about Estrela vs Castro Daire?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Castro Daire?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Castro Daire.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Castro Daire played?
- Estrela vs Castro Daire is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.