Spezia vs Livorno: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 4Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia
The Footlab model makes Spezia the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Livorno. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spezia vs Livorno?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Spezia (1,829) and Livorno (1,837).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spezia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Livorno have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Torres(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Empoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 8, 2026 | Pescara(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| May 1, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 2-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reggiana(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Empoli(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pontedera(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Arezzo(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Spezia win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Livorno win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2020 | Livorno 0-1 Spezia | Serie B |
| Dec 7, 2019 | Spezia 2-0 Livorno | Serie B |
| Feb 27, 2019 | Spezia 3-0 Livorno | Serie B |
| Oct 7, 2018 | Livorno 1-3 Spezia | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Spezia score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Livorno score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Livorno | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spezia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spezia vs Livorno?
- The Footlab model makes Spezia the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Livorno.
- Where and when is Spezia vs Livorno played?
- Spezia vs Livorno is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Alberto Picco, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.