Where and when is Sporting JAX vs Louisville City played?

Sporting JAX vs Louisville City is played on October 3, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC), in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Sporting JAX vs Louisville City: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)

Sporting JAX

Louisville City

The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 15% for Sporting JAX. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?

Louisville City starts as the favourite with a 238-point Elo edge (1,874 vs 1,636).

Sporting JAX win15 %

Draw17 %

Louisville City win67 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting JAX have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Louisville City have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sporting JAX
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Birmingham Legion(away)	3-2	USL Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Indy Eleven(home)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	0-5	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(away)	0-2	USL Championship
Jul 18, 2026	Brooklyn(home)	2-2	USL Championship

Louisville City
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Indy Eleven(away)	1-2	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Orange County SC(away)	3-2	USL Championship
Aug 12, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies(away)	0-0	USL League One Cup
Aug 9, 2026	San Antonio(home)	1-1	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies(away)	4-5	USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sporting JAX win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Louisville City win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 18, 2026	Louisville City 1-0 Sporting JAX	USL Championship

Last archived meeting: Louisville City vs Sporting JAX on Apr 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sporting JAX score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Louisville City score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Sporting JAX	1.5	2.5	1	10/15	10/15
Louisville City	1.5	1.4	5	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sporting JAX sit 13th in USL Championship (3 points from 13 matches) and Louisville City sit 3rd (21 points from 14 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Louisville City	14	6	3	5	24	22	21
5	Louisville City	21	9	4	8	37	36	31
13	Sporting JAX	13	0	3	10	15	34	3
13	Sporting JAX	21	2	5	14	26	54	11

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?: The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 15% for Sporting JAX.
Where and when is Sporting JAX vs Louisville City played?: Sporting JAX vs Louisville City is played on October 3, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC), in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.