Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Children's Mercy Victory Field, Kansas City, Missouri
The Footlab model makes St. Louis City II the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Sporting KC II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II?
St. Louis City II starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,689 vs 1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting KC II have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; St. Louis City II have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance(away) | 0-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Los Angeles FC II(away) | 1-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(home) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Austin II(away) | 0-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(home) | 3-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(home) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | The Town(away) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(away) | 0-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Monarchs(home) | 3-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps II(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sporting KC II win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 St. Louis City II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Sporting KC II 0-2 St. Louis City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Feb 28, 2026 | St. Louis City II 4-0 Sporting KC II | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 24, 2025 | St. Louis City II 3-0 Sporting KC II | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 23, 2025 | St. Louis City II 2-0 Sporting KC II | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Sporting KC II 0-1 St. Louis City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Sporting KC II 3-1 St. Louis City II | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting KC II score 1.4 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; St. Louis City II score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting KC II | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| St. Louis City II | 1.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting KC II sit 12th in MLS Next Pro (20 points from 24 matches) and St. Louis City II sit 6th (39 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City II | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 35 | 39 |
| 5 | St. Louis City II | 23 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 6 | Sporting KC II | 24 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 30 | 61 | 20 |
| 6 | St. Louis City II | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 35 | 39 |
| 12 | Sporting KC II | 24 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 30 | 61 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting KC II | 22 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 29 | 55 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II?
- The Footlab model makes St. Louis City II the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Sporting KC II.
- Where and when is Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II played?
- Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II is played on September 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Children's Mercy Victory Field, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC