Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Caroline Faye, Mbour
The Footlab AI model makes Jaraaf the favourite at 47%, against 37% for a draw and 16% for Stade de Mbour. The most likely score is 0-0. If Jaraaf wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 4,777 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf?
Jaraaf starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,710 vs 1,572).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stade de Mbour
Not enough data to predict the Stade de Mbour lineup.
Jaraaf
4-4-1-1- 8I. Kane
- 30A. Faty
- 6M. Saër Guèye
- 20A. Oualy
- 10M. Koïté
- 26M. Ben Ahmed Ba
- 9F. Fall
- 21J. Bocandé
- 3A. Diédhiou
- 4M. Guey
- 24C. Lo Ndoye
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 03:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade de Mbour have 2 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats; Jaraaf have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | HLM(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Guédiawaye(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Wally Daan(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Gorée(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 22, 2026 | Guédiawaye(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Wally Daan(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ouakam(away) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | AJEL(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | AS Camberene(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 22, 2026 | Casa Sport(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stade de Mbour win, 3 draws, 2 Jaraaf wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Stade de Mbour 0-2 Jaraaf | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Jaraaf 0-0 Stade de Mbour | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2024 | Stade de Mbour 0-2 Jaraaf | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 30, 2023 | Jaraaf 2-2 Stade de Mbour | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 6, 2023 | Jaraaf 1-1 Stade de Mbour | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Stade de Mbour 1-0 Jaraaf | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf on Mar 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade de Mbour score 0.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Jaraaf score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 17% probability of over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade de Mbour | 0.5 | 0.8 | 8 | 4/15 | 1/15 |
| Jaraaf | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade de Mbour sit 10th in Ligue 1 (2 points from 3 matches) and Jaraaf sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jaraaf | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Stade de Mbour | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
A question about Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf?
- The Footlab AI model makes Jaraaf the favourite at 47%, against 37% for a draw and 16% for Stade de Mbour.
- Where and when is Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf played?
- Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Caroline Faye, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 17% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.