Staphorst vs Hoogeveen: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Het Noorderslag, Staphorst
The Footlab model makes Staphorst the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for Hoogeveen. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Staphorst vs Hoogeveen?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Staphorst (1,720) and Hoogeveen (1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Staphorst have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Hoogeveen have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior '31(home) | 2-4 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dovo(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ROHDA Raalte(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Excelsior '31(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | Hsc 21(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | VV Scherpenzeel(away) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SVZW(home) | 4-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | SC Genemuiden(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Huizen(away) | 0-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Staphorst win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Hoogeveen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Hoogeveen 2-1 Staphorst | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Staphorst 3-1 Hoogeveen | Derde Divisie |
| May 11, 2024 | Hoogeveen 1-3 Staphorst | Derde Divisie |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Staphorst 5-1 Hoogeveen | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Hoogeveen 3-0 Staphorst | KNVB Beker |
Last archived meeting: Hoogeveen vs Staphorst on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Staphorst score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hoogeveen score 1.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staphorst | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Hoogeveen | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Staphorst sit 15th in Derde Divisie (1 points from 2 matches) and Hoogeveen sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hoogeveen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Staphorst | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Staphorst vs Hoogeveen?
- The Footlab model makes Staphorst the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for Hoogeveen.
- Where and when is Staphorst vs Hoogeveen played?
- Staphorst vs Hoogeveen is played on December 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Het Noorderslag, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.