Stranraer vs Dumbarton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stair Park, Stranraer
The Footlab model makes Stranraer the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Dumbarton. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stranraer vs Dumbarton?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Stranraer (1,545) and Dumbarton (1,453).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stranraer have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Dumbarton have 3, 0 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spartans(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Annan Athletic(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Clyde(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stranraer win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Dumbarton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Stranraer 1-1 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Dumbarton 2-0 Stranraer | League Two |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Stranraer 1-1 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Dumbarton 1-2 Stranraer | League Two |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Stranraer 0-0 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Stranraer 5-0 Dumbarton | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Stranraer vs Dumbarton on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stranraer score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Dumbarton score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Dumbarton | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stranraer sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 4 matches) and Dumbarton sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stranraer | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stranraer vs Dumbarton?
- The Footlab model makes Stranraer the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Dumbarton.
- Where and when is Stranraer vs Dumbarton played?
- Stranraer vs Dumbarton is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stair Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.