Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 20, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Starfire Sports Stadium, Tukwila, Washington
The Footlab model makes Portland Timbers II the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Tacoma Defiance. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Tacoma Defiance (1,622) and Portland Timbers II (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tacoma Defiance have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Portland Timbers II have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Sporting KC II(home) | 4-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Los Angeles FC II(away) | 3-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | North Texas(away) | 1-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps II(home) | 4-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(home) | 2-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ventura County(away) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | North Texas(away) | 3-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Los Angeles FC II(home) | 0-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Minnesota United II(away) | 2-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Monarchs(home) | 1-0 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tacoma Defiance win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Portland Timbers II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance 0-2 Portland Timbers II | MLS Next Pro |
| May 31, 2026 | Portland Timbers II 1-0 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Portland Timbers II 2-1 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Tacoma Defiance 1-2 Portland Timbers II | MLS Next Pro |
| May 19, 2025 | Portland Timbers II 2-1 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
| Sep 9, 2024 | Tacoma Defiance 5-2 Portland Timbers II | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II on Jul 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tacoma Defiance score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Portland Timbers II score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma Defiance | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Portland Timbers II | 1.3 | 0.9 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tacoma Defiance sit 7th in MLS Next Pro (36 points from 24 matches) and Portland Timbers II sit 2nd (50 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portland Timbers II | 24 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 24 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 23 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 36 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
- The Footlab model makes Portland Timbers II the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Tacoma Defiance.
- Where and when is Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II played?
- Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II is played on September 20, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Starfire Sports Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC