Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, Florida
The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Detroit City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Tampa Bay Rowdies (1,858) and Detroit City (1,810).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Detroit City have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 5-4 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Loudoun United(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Miami FC(away) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Detroit City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 Detroit City | USL Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Detroit City 2-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Detroit City 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-3 Detroit City | USL Championship |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Detroit City 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Detroit City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Detroit City score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Detroit City | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st in USL Championship (28 points from 13 matches) and Detroit City sit 2nd (21 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 28 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 20 | 44 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City?
- The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Detroit City.
- Where and when is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City played?
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Al Lang Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots