Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, Florida
The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Miami FC. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC?
Tampa Bay Rowdies starts as the favourite with a 225-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,633).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Miami FC have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 5-4 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Charleston Battery(away) | 0-5 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-2 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Detroit City(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Miami FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Miami FC 2-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| May 16, 2026 | Miami FC 1-4 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL League One Cup |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-3 Miami FC | USL League One Cup |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Miami FC 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 Miami FC | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Miami FC score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Miami FC | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st in USL Championship (28 points from 13 matches) and Miami FC sit 8th (17 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 28 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 20 | 44 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 17 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 39 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC?
- The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Miami FC.
- Where and when is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC played?
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Al Lang Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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