Where and when is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX played?

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Al Lang Stadium, in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, Florida

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Sporting JAX

The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Sporting JAX. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?

Tampa Bay Rowdies starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,616).

Tampa Bay Rowdies win78 %

Draw14 %

Sporting JAX win7 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Sporting JAX have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Detroit City(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Rhode Island(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Aug 12, 2026	Louisville City(home)	0-0	USL League One Cup
Aug 9, 2026	Orange County SC(away)	3-0	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	Louisville City(home)	5-4	USL Championship

Sporting JAX
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Birmingham Legion(away)	3-2	USL Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Indy Eleven(home)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	0-5	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(away)	0-2	USL Championship
Jul 18, 2026	Brooklyn(home)	2-2	USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sporting JAX win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 6, 2026	Sporting JAX 0-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies	USL League One Cup
Apr 4, 2026	Sporting JAX 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies	USL Championship
Feb 28, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 Sporting JAX	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies on Jun 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting JAX score 1.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Tampa Bay Rowdies	1.9	1.0	8	5/15	6/15
Sporting JAX	1.5	2.5	1	10/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st in USL Championship (28 points from 13 matches) and Sporting JAX sit 13th (3 points from 13 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	13	8	4	1	21	8	28
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	21	13	5	3	38	20	44
13	Sporting JAX	13	0	3	10	15	34	3
13	Sporting JAX	21	2	5	14	26	54	11

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?: The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Sporting JAX.
Where and when is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX played?: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Al Lang Stadium, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.