Tapatío vs Tlaxcala: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab model makes Tapatío the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Tlaxcala. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tapatío vs Tlaxcala?
Tapatío starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,864 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tapatío have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Tlaxcala have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(away) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(home) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Leon(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Tapatío win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Tlaxcala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Tapatío 3-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Tlaxcala 1-0 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Tapatío 1-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Tlaxcala 2-3 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 13, 2024 | Tlaxcala 0-3 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 24, 2023 | Tapatío 2-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Tapatío score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tlaxcala score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapatío | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Tlaxcala | 1.2 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tapatío sit 11th in Liga de Expansión MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Tlaxcala sit 15th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tapatío | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tapatío vs Tlaxcala?
- The Footlab model makes Tapatío the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Tlaxcala.
- Where and when is Tapatío vs Tlaxcala played?
- Tapatío vs Tlaxcala is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.