Tarbes vs Châteaubriant: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 17Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B, Tarbes
The Footlab model makes Tarbes the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Châteaubriant. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tarbes vs Châteaubriant?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Tarbes (1,688) and Châteaubriant (1,632).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tarbes have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Châteaubriant have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Blagnac(away) | 2-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Onet-le-Château(home) | 6-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lège-Cap-Ferret(home) | 4-4 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pau II(away) | 1-0 | National 3 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avranches(home) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Les Herbiers(away) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Bayonne(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Montlouis(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Dinan Léhon(home) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group A |
How many goals should we expect?
Tarbes score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Châteaubriant score 0.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarbes | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Châteaubriant | 0.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tarbes sit 11th in National 2 - Group B (1 points from 1 matches) and Châteaubriant sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tarbes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Châteaubriant | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tarbes vs Châteaubriant?
- The Footlab model makes Tarbes the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Châteaubriant.
- Where and when is Tarbes vs Châteaubriant played?
- Tarbes vs Châteaubriant is played on February 13, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.