Châteaubriant vs Bayonne: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 18Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade de la Ville en Bois, Châteaubriant
The Footlab model makes Bayonne the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Châteaubriant. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Châteaubriant vs Bayonne?
Bayonne starts as the favourite with a 192-point Elo edge (1,823 vs 1,632).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Châteaubriant have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Bayonne have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avranches(home) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Les Herbiers(away) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Bayonne(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Montlouis(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Dinan Léhon(home) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Granville(away) | 3-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Saumur(home) | 3-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Châteaubriant(away) | 1-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Bordeaux(home) | 1-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Avranches(away) | 2-0 | National 2 - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Châteaubriant win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bayonne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Châteaubriant 2-1 Bayonne | National 2 - Group A |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Bayonne 2-0 Châteaubriant | National 2 - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Châteaubriant vs Bayonne on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Châteaubriant score 0.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bayonne score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Châteaubriant | 0.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Bayonne | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Châteaubriant sit 16th in National 2 - Group B (0 points from 1 matches) and Bayonne sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayonne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Châteaubriant | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Châteaubriant vs Bayonne?
- The Footlab model makes Bayonne the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Châteaubriant.
- Where and when is Châteaubriant vs Bayonne played?
- Châteaubriant vs Bayonne is played on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Ville en Bois, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.