Tarbes vs Lorient II: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 2Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B, Tarbes
The Footlab model makes Tarbes the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Lorient II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tarbes vs Lorient II?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Tarbes (1,690) and Lorient II (1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tarbes have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Lorient II have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Blagnac(away) | 2-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Onet-le-Château(home) | 6-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lège-Cap-Ferret(home) | 4-4 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pau II(away) | 1-0 | National 3 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chauray(home) | 3-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Poitiers(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Angoulême(away) | 2-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Saint-Malo(home) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 2-2 | National 2 - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Tarbes win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lorient II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2015 | Lorient II 2-1 Tarbes | National 2 - Group D |
| Sep 13, 2014 | Tarbes 1-2 Lorient II | National 2 - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Tarbes score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lorient II score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarbes | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Lorient II | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tarbes sit 11th in National 2 - Group B (1 points from 1 matches) and Lorient II sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lorient II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Tarbes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tarbes vs Lorient II?
- The Footlab model makes Tarbes the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Lorient II.
- Where and when is Tarbes vs Lorient II played?
- Tarbes vs Lorient II is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.