Ternana vs Progresso: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni
The Footlab AI model makes Ternana the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ternana vs Progresso?
Ternana starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (1,769 vs 1,553).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ternana vs Progresso
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ternana
Not enough data to predict the Ternana lineup.
Progresso
Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ternana have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Progresso have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Scandicci(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Tau Altopascio(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Mezzolara(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Ternana score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ternana sit 9th in Serie D - Girone E (8 points from 6 matches) and Progresso sit 16th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ternana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Progresso | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
A question about Ternana vs Progresso?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ternana vs Progresso?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ternana the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Progresso.
- Where and when is Ternana vs Progresso played?
- Ternana vs Progresso is played on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Libero Liberati, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2027GavorranovsSeravezza
- Feb 28, 2027Ghivizzano Borgo MozzanovsLucchese
- Feb 28, 2027Sasso Marconi ZolavsTau Altopascio
- Feb 28, 2027FlaminiavsPrato
- Feb 28, 2027GrassinavsMontevarchi Calcio
- Feb 28, 2027San Donato TavarnellevsScandicci
- Feb 28, 2027Terranuova TraianavsMezzolara
- Feb 28, 2027RondinellavsRobur Siena