Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Lucchese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Carraia, Coreglia Antelminelli
The Footlab model makes Lucchese the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Lucchese?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano (1,637) and Lucchese (1,735).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Lucchese have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | Sestri Levante(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2025 | Sestri Levante(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Torres(home) | 3-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Arezzo(away) | 1-4 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lucchese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2020 | Lucchese 2-0 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 1-1 Lucchese | Serie D - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Lucchese vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano on Jan 26, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lucchese score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Lucchese | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 44 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Lucchese?
- The Footlab model makes Lucchese the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano.
- Where and when is Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Lucchese played?
- Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Lucchese is played on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Carraia, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.