Tirsense vs Montalegre: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 8Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Abel Alves de Figueiredo, Santo Tirso
The Footlab model makes Tirsense the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Montalegre. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tirsense vs Montalegre?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Tirsense (1,883) and Montalegre (1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tirsense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Montalegre have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chaves II(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brito(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Celoricense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Sandinenses(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Os Limianos(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Vila Real(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Tirsense win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Montalegre win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2024 | Tirsense 3-0 Montalegre | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Montalegre 2-1 Tirsense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Tirsense vs Montalegre on Mar 3, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Tirsense score 1.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Montalegre score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tirsense | 1.1 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Montalegre | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tirsense sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (6 points from 2 matches) and Montalegre sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tirsense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Montalegre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tirsense vs Montalegre?
- The Footlab model makes Tirsense the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Montalegre.
- Where and when is Tirsense vs Montalegre played?
- Tirsense vs Montalegre is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Abel Alves de Figueiredo, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.