Vinhais vs Celoricense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 8Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Vinhais, Vinhais
The Footlab model makes Vinhais the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Celoricense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vinhais vs Celoricense?
Celoricense starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,686).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Vinhais have 0 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Celoricense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Ançã(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Vianense(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Vianense(home) | 0-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Montalegre(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
How many goals should we expect?
Vinhais score 0.4 and concede 3.1 goals per match over their last 7; Celoricense score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinhais | 0.4 | 3.1 | 0 | 3/7 | 6/7 |
| Celoricense | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vinhais sit 14th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (0 points from 2 matches) and Celoricense sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celoricense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vinhais vs Celoricense?
- The Footlab model makes Vinhais the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Celoricense.
- Where and when is Vinhais vs Celoricense played?
- Vinhais vs Celoricense is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Vinhais, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.