Toluca vs Monterrey: result 3-2 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - Semi-finalsKick-off on December 7, 2025 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
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What was the result of Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca won 3-2 on December 7, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 19′F. PereiraToluca
- 43′PaulinhoToluca
- 51′HelinhoToluca (pen.)
- 58′Sergio RamosMonterrey (pen.)
- 75′R. de la RosaMonterrey
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Monterrey have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Nov 30, 2025 | FC Juarez(home) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 27, 2025 | FC Juarez(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Club America(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Atlas(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Toluca(home) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Club America(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Club America(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 2-4 | Liga MX |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Tigres UANL(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toluca win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Monterrey win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Toluca 6-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 11, 2025 | Toluca 2-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 8, 2025 | Monterrey 3-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Toluca 1-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Monterrey 1-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Monterrey score 1.8 and concede 1.6.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Monterrey | 1.8 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Monterrey sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy