Toluca vs Monterrey: result 3-2 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - Semi-finalsKick-off on December 7, 2025 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
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What was the result of Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca won 3-2 on December 7, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 19′F. PereiraToluca
- 43′PaulinhoToluca
- 51′HelinhoToluca (pen.)
- 58′Sergio RamosMonterrey (pen.)
- 75′R. de la RosaMonterrey
Official lineup for Toluca vs Monterrey
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 26Paulinho
- 8N. Castro
- 10J. Angulo
- 11Helinho
- 5F. Romero
- 14M. Ruiz
- 20J. Gallardo
- 6F. Pereira
- 25E. López
- 19S. Simón
- 1H. González
Monterrey
5-3-2- 7G. Berterame
- 10Sergio Canales
- 5F. Ambríz
- 30J. Rodríguez
- 8Óliver Torres
- 3G. Arteaga
- 21L. Reyes
- 93Sergio Ramos
- 33S. Medina
- 2R. Chávez
- 22L. Cárdenas
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Monterrey have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Nov 30, 2025 | FC Juarez(home) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 27, 2025 | FC Juarez(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Club America(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Atlas(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Toluca(home) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Club America(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Club America(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 2-4 | Liga MX |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Tigres UANL(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toluca wins, 1 draw, 2 Monterrey wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Toluca 6-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 11, 2025 | Toluca 2-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 8, 2025 | Monterrey 3-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Toluca 1-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Monterrey 1-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Monterrey score 1.8 and concede 1.6.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Monterrey | 1.8 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 2nd in Liga MX (20 points from 11 matches) and Monterrey sit 10th (14 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
A question about Toluca vs Monterrey?
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy