Tondela vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tondela wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tondela vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Tondela (2,041) and Penafiel (1,997).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tondela vs Penafiel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 6Adrián Pica
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tondela have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Penafiel have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Porto B(away) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tondela wins, 1 draw, 3 Penafiel wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | Tondela 2-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Penafiel 2-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Tondela 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Penafiel 0-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| May 14, 2023 | Penafiel 1-0 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 9, 2023 | Tondela 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tondela score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tondela sit 7th in Segunda Liga (12 points from 7 matches) and Penafiel sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
A question about Tondela vs Penafiel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tondela vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Tondela vs Penafiel played?
- Tondela vs Penafiel is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Cardoso, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.