União de Leiria vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
The Footlab model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win União de Leiria vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate União de Leiria (1,944) and Chaves (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, União de Leiria have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Chaves have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 4-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vizela(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting CP B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Academica(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 União de Leiria win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Chaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Chaves 0-2 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 3, 2025 | União de Leiria 2-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | Chaves 0-2 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | União de Leiria 1-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Chaves vs União de Leiria on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
União de Leiria score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União de Leiria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Chaves | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
União de Leiria sit 9th in Segunda Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Chaves sit 18th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | União de Leiria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Chaves | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for União de Leiria vs Chaves?
- The Footlab model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Chaves.
- Where and when is União de Leiria vs Chaves played?
- União de Leiria vs Chaves is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.