Toulon vs Lyon Duchere: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group CGroup C - 19Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade de Bon-Rencontre, Toulon
The Footlab model makes Toulon the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Lyon Duchere. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulon vs Lyon Duchere?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Toulon (1,745) and Lyon Duchere (1,751).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulon have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Lyon Duchere have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 16, 2026 | Bobigny(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 9, 2026 | Saint-Priest(away) | 2-2 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 2, 2026 | Fréjus St-Raphaël(away) | 1-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Rumilly Vallières(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rumilly Vallières(home) | 1-7 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 16, 2026 | Montpellier II(home) | 3-0 | National 3 - Group H |
| May 9, 2026 | Olympique Lyonnais II(away) | 4-2 | National 3 - Group H |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Fos(home) | 2-3 | National 3 - Group H |
| Apr 18, 2026 | ASPTT Dijon(away) | 4-2 | National 3 - Group H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Toulon win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lyon Duchere win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | Lyon Duchere 3-1 Toulon | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Toulon 1-2 Lyon Duchere | National 2 - Group C |
| Feb 11, 2022 | Lyon Duchere 2-0 Toulon | National 2 - Group C |
| Aug 27, 2021 | Toulon 0-2 Lyon Duchere | National 2 - Group C |
| Dec 13, 2019 | Toulon 1-1 Lyon Duchere | Ligue 3 |
Last archived meeting: Lyon Duchere vs Toulon on Feb 11, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Toulon score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon Duchere score 2.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulon | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Lyon Duchere | 2.2 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulon sit 7th in National 2 - Group C (1 points from 1 matches) and Lyon Duchere sit 17th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Toulon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Lyon Duchere | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulon vs Lyon Duchere?
- The Footlab model makes Toulon the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Lyon Duchere.
- Where and when is Toulon vs Lyon Duchere played?
- Toulon vs Lyon Duchere is played on March 6, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de Bon-Rencontre, in the National 2 - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.