Chasselay MDA vs Fréjus St-Raphaël: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group CGroup C - 19Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Ludovic Giuly, Chasselay
The Footlab model makes Chasselay MDA the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Fréjus St-Raphaël. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chasselay MDA vs Fréjus St-Raphaël?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Chasselay MDA (1,743) and Fréjus St-Raphaël (1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chasselay MDA have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Fréjus St-Raphaël have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toulon(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Istres(away) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 9, 2026 | Andrézieux(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 1, 2026 | Cannes(away) | 1-2 | National 2 - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saint-Priest(home) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 16, 2026 | Grasse(home) | 1-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 9, 2026 | Bobigny(away) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 2, 2026 | Toulon(home) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Saint-Priest(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chasselay MDA win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Fréjus St-Raphaël win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Chasselay MDA 0-2 Fréjus St-Raphaël | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Fréjus St-Raphaël 3-1 Chasselay MDA | National 2 - Group C |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Fréjus St-Raphaël 2-4 Chasselay MDA | National 2 - Group A |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Chasselay MDA 2-1 Fréjus St-Raphaël | National 2 - Group A |
| May 21, 2022 | Chasselay MDA 0-1 Fréjus St-Raphaël | National 2 - Group C |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Fréjus St-Raphaël 0-0 Chasselay MDA | National 2 - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Chasselay MDA vs Fréjus St-Raphaël on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chasselay MDA score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fréjus St-Raphaël score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chasselay MDA | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Fréjus St-Raphaël | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chasselay MDA sit 8th in National 2 - Group C (1 points from 1 matches) and Fréjus St-Raphaël sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Chasselay MDA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chasselay MDA vs Fréjus St-Raphaël?
- The Footlab model makes Chasselay MDA the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Fréjus St-Raphaël.
- Where and when is Chasselay MDA vs Fréjus St-Raphaël played?
- Chasselay MDA vs Fréjus St-Raphaël is played on March 6, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Ludovic Giuly, in the National 2 - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.