Triestina vs Conegliano: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone CGroup C - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Nereo Rocco, Trieste
The Footlab model makes Conegliano the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Triestina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Triestina vs Conegliano?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Triestina (1,666) and Conegliano (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Triestina have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Conegliano have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus(home) | 1-6 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Albinoleffe(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Giana Erminio(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Pro Patria(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Virtus Verona(home) | 5-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Altavilla(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | FC Obermais(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Luparense(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Treviso(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Clodiense(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone C |
How many goals should we expect?
Triestina score 1.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Conegliano score 1.4 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triestina | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Conegliano | 1.4 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Conegliano | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 36 | 28 | 50 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Triestina vs Conegliano?
- The Footlab model makes Conegliano the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Triestina.
- Where and when is Triestina vs Conegliano played?
- Triestina vs Conegliano is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nereo Rocco, in the Serie D - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.