Třinec vs Karviná: prediction and stats
FNLRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rudolfa Labaje, Třinec
The Footlab model makes Třinec the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Karviná. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Třinec vs Karviná?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Třinec (1,945) and Karviná (1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Třinec have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Karviná have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Opava(away) | 2-2 | FNL |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Ústí nad Labem(home) | 0-0 | FNL |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bospor Bohumín(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Slavia Praha II(away) | 2-3 | FNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Vysočina Jihlava(home) | 0-0 | FNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Viktoria Žižkov(home) | 3-0 | FNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Arsenal Česká Lípa(away) | 5-2 | FNL |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Brumov(away) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Prostějov(away) | 2-1 | FNL |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Vlašim(home) | 1-0 | FNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Třinec win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Karviná win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2023 | Karviná 1-0 Třinec | FNL |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Třinec 0-3 Karviná | FNL |
| Aug 15, 2020 | Karviná 1-1 Třinec | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2020 | Třinec 2-2 Karviná | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Třinec score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Karviná score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Třinec | 1.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Karviná | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Třinec vs Karviná?
- The Footlab model makes Třinec the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Karviná.
- Where and when is Třinec vs Karviná played?
- Třinec vs Karviná is played on September 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rudolfa Labaje, in the FNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.