Turris vs Nocerina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Amerigo Liguori, Torre del Greco
The Footlab model makes Nocerina the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Turris. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Turris vs Nocerina?
Nocerina starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,760 vs 1,591).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Turris have 0 wins, 2 draws and 13 defeats; Nocerina have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2025 | Giugliano(away) | 1-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Cavese(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Audace Cerignola(away) | 1-5 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Trapani 1905(home) | 0-4 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Avellino(away) | 1-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Ischia(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Monastir(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Flaminia(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Lodigiani(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Latte Dolce(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Turris win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Nocerina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2023 | Turris 3-2 Nocerina | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2022 | Nocerina 1-1 Turris | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Turris score 0.5 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nocerina score 0.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turris | 0.5 | 2.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Nocerina | 0.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Turris vs Nocerina?
- The Footlab model makes Nocerina the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Turris.
- Where and when is Turris vs Nocerina played?
- Turris vs Nocerina is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Amerigo Liguori, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.