Tusker vs Police: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ruaraka Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 37%, against 35% for a draw and 28% for Tusker. The most likely score is 0-0. If Police wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,838 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tusker vs Police?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Tusker (1,562) and Police (1,596).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tusker vs Police
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tusker
Not enough data to predict the Tusker lineup.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 05:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tusker have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Police have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 1-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 0-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(home) | 1-0 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Migori Youth(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tusker wins, 2 draws, 2 Police wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker 2-1 Police | Shield Cup |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Police 1-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Tusker 1-2 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Tusker 0-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Police 1-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| May 18, 2024 | Police 0-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Tusker score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 25% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusker | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Police | 1.0 | 0.5 | 8 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tusker sit 11th in FKF Premier League (3 points from 1 match) and Police sit 9th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
A question about Tusker vs Police?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tusker vs Police?
- The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 37%, against 35% for a draw and 28% for Tusker.
- Where and when is Tusker vs Police played?
- Tusker vs Police is played on February 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ruaraka Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 25% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.