Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ruaraka Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes Tusker the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Ulinzi Stars. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Tusker (1,520) and Ulinzi Stars (1,485).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tusker have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Ulinzi Stars have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(away) | 0-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Police(home) | 2-1 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Tusker win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Ulinzi Stars win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 27, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars 2-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars 1-2 Tusker | Shield Cup |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Tusker 1-0 Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Ulinzi Stars 0-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Tusker 1-1 Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Ulinzi Stars 0-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker on May 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tusker score 0.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ulinzi Stars score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusker | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| Ulinzi Stars | 1.2 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tusker sit 9th in FKF Premier League (45 points from 34 matches) and Ulinzi Stars sit 13th (41 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34 | 37 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars?
- The Footlab model makes Tusker the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Ulinzi Stars.
- Where and when is Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars played?
- Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars is played on April 10, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ruaraka Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.