Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia
The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Union Brescia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Union Brescia (1,868) and Desenzano Calvina (1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Brescia have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Desenzano Calvina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arezzo(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 31, 2026 | Scafatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Union Brescia score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Desenzano Calvina score 1.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Brescia | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Desenzano Calvina | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Brescia sit 2nd in Serie C - Girone A (3 points from 1 matches) and Desenzano Calvina sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Union Brescia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina?
- The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Union Brescia.
- Where and when is Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina played?
- Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.