Union Comercio vs U. San Martin: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 22, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García, Tarapoto
The Footlab AI model makes Union Comercio the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for U. San Martin. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,399 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Comercio vs U. San Martin?
On Elo ratings, Union Comercio has 1,567 points and U. San Martin 1,501.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Union Comercio vs U. San Martin
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Union Comercio
4-3-3- 99B. Golúz
- 10G. Guerrero
- 34Alessandro Pinedo
- 25E. Páucar
- 24J. Navea
- 20R. Gómez
- 5E. Álvarez
- 17D. Vargas
- 15Cleyder Vargas
- 40Leyto Gavino
- 28L. García
U. San Martin
4-3-3- 70C. López
- 18A. Arteaga
- 16S. Sanchez
- 24K. Peña
- 10Y. Oliva
- 19I. Chumpitáz
- 4Otávio Gut
- 17J. Reyes
- 5B. Ampuero
- 6R. Cuba
- 1P. Ynamine
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Comercio have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; U. San Martin have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | U. San Martin(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Minas(home) | 3-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Molinos El Pirata(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ayacucho FC(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Ayacucho FC(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | Union Comercio(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Alianza Universidad(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Carlos A. Mannucci(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Bentín Tacna Heroica(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bentín Tacna Heroica(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Union Comercio wins, 2 draws, 1 U. San Martin win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | U. San Martin 1-1 Union Comercio | Segunda División |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Union Comercio 1-0 U. San Martin | Segunda División |
| May 23, 2026 | U. San Martin 0-1 Union Comercio | Segunda División |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Union Comercio 1-2 U. San Martin | Segunda División |
| Apr 12, 2025 | U. San Martin 1-1 Union Comercio | Segunda División |
| Aug 31, 2019 | U. San Martin 1-2 Union Comercio | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: U. San Martin vs Union Comercio on Nov 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Comercio score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; U. San Martin score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Comercio | 1.4 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| U. San Martin | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Comercio sit 1st in Segunda División (32 points from 16 matches) and U. San Martin sit 5th (24 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 5 | 32 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 17 | 24 |
A question about Union Comercio vs U. San Martin?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Comercio vs U. San Martin?
- The Footlab AI model makes Union Comercio the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for U. San Martin.
- Where and when is Union Comercio vs U. San Martin played?
- Union Comercio vs U. San Martin is played on November 22, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.