USV Iaşi vs Aerostar Bacau: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 1Group 1 - 10Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul USV Iași, Iași
The Footlab model makes USV Iaşi the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Aerostar Bacau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win USV Iaşi vs Aerostar Bacau?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate USV Iaşi (1,380) and Aerostar Bacau (1,365).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, USV Iaşi have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Aerostar Bacau have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sporting Lieşti(home) | 1-2 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cetatea Suceava(home) | 1-0 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Bradul Putna(away) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Stiinta Miroslava(home) | 1-0 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | FC Bacău II(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(away) | 2-6 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 USV Iaşi win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Aerostar Bacau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | USV Iaşi 3-1 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | USV Iaşi 0-1 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Aerostar Bacau 2-2 USV Iaşi | Liga III - Serie 1 |
Last archived meeting: USV Iaşi vs Aerostar Bacau on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
USV Iaşi score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aerostar Bacau score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USV Iaşi | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Aerostar Bacau | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
USV Iaşi sit 3rd in Liga III - Serie 1 (37 points from 7 matches) and Aerostar Bacau sit 5th (35 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | USV Iaşi | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 37 |
| 5 | Aerostar Bacau | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for USV Iaşi vs Aerostar Bacau?
- The Footlab model makes USV Iaşi the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Aerostar Bacau.
- Where and when is USV Iaşi vs Aerostar Bacau played?
- USV Iaşi vs Aerostar Bacau is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul USV Iași, in the Liga III - Serie 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.