Utebo vs Arnedo: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santa Ana, Utebo
The Footlab model makes Utebo the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Arnedo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utebo vs Arnedo?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Utebo (1,908) and Arnedo (1,933).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utebo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Arnedo have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Águilas(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Sestao River(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ebro(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Oyonesa(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 31, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 24, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Utebo win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Arnedo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2023 | Utebo 1-0 Arnedo | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Arnedo 1-1 Utebo | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Utebo score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Arnedo score 2.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utebo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Arnedo | 2.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Utebo | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 56 | 42 | 58 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utebo vs Arnedo?
- The Footlab model makes Utebo the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Arnedo.
- Where and when is Utebo vs Arnedo played?
- Utebo vs Arnedo is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santa Ana, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.