Náxara vs Peña Sport: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Salera, Nájera
The Footlab model makes Náxara the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Peña Sport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Náxara vs Peña Sport?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Náxara (1,880) and Peña Sport (1,933).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Náxara have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Peña Sport have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Eibar II(away) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Alfaro(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | SD Logroñés(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Mutilvera(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Atlético Artajonés(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 3, 2026 | Subiza(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | San Juan(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Beti Onak(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Náxara win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Peña Sport win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2022 | Peña Sport 2-3 Náxara | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 3, 2021 | Náxara 2-0 Peña Sport | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Náxara score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Peña Sport score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Náxara | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Peña Sport | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Náxara | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 48 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Náxara vs Peña Sport?
- The Footlab model makes Náxara the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Peña Sport.
- Where and when is Náxara vs Peña Sport played?
- Náxara vs Peña Sport is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Salera, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.