Utiel vs Villarreal III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Group 6 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla, Utiel
The Footlab model makes Villarreal III the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Utiel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utiel vs Villarreal III?
Villarreal III starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,872 vs 1,693).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utiel have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Villarreal III have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Vall de Uxó(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 2, 2026 | Alzira(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jove Español(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | RC Catarroja(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Levante II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 17, 2026 | Levante II(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 9, 2026 | Torrellano(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 2, 2026 | Levante II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Atzeneta(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Utiel win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Villarreal III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Villarreal III 3-1 Utiel | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Utiel 0-2 Villarreal III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Utiel 1-0 Villarreal III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Villarreal III 1-0 Utiel | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Villarreal III 3-1 Utiel | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Utiel 1-0 Villarreal III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
Last archived meeting: Villarreal III vs Utiel on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Utiel score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal III score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utiel | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Villarreal III | 1.9 | 1.0 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utiel sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 (31 points from 34 matches) and Villarreal III sit 4th (63 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Villarreal III | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 64 | 36 | 63 |
| 16 | Utiel | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 45 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utiel vs Villarreal III?
- The Footlab model makes Villarreal III the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Utiel.
- Where and when is Utiel vs Villarreal III played?
- Utiel vs Villarreal III is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.